Geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East are of considerable importance not just for the region but the world across as they are the major suppliers for most of the world’s energy needs. As the geo-politics of the middle east flare up, there are generally 2 major countries whose names come up – Israel and Iran.
Since the 1980s, these 2 countries are in constant state of hostilities. Iran believes they are the proponents of the Muslim world and hence do not accept the presence of a Jewish majority state in the region. Also, they believe that Israel is a major ally of USA who are their enemies.
The conflict between Iran and Israel is multifaceted and deeply rooted in historical, religious, geopolitical, and ideological factors. This contentious relationship has evolved over decades and is characterized by hostility, rivalry, and occasional direct confrontations, as well as proxy battles in the broader Middle East region.
Historical Context:
The animosity between Iran and Israel traces back to the Iranian Revolution of 1979 when Iran transformed from a monarchy under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi to an Islamic republic under Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. The new regime’s anti-Western and anti-Israeli rhetoric, coupled with its support for Palestinian causes and militant groups, set the stage for confrontation with Israel.
Religious and Ideological Dimensions:
Religious ideologies play a significant role in shaping the Iran-Israel conflict. Iran’s government, predominantly Shiite Muslim, sees itself as a champion of the oppressed Muslims, particularly the Palestinians. Meanwhile, Israel, founded as a Jewish state in 1948, views Iran’s support for militant groups like Hamas and Hezbollah as direct threats to its security and existence.
Geopolitical Dynamics:
Iran and Israel are key players in the volatile Middle East, each pursuing its own regional agenda. Iran seeks to expand its influence and establish itself as a dominant power in the region, often through support for proxies and militant groups. Meanwhile, Israel perceives Iran’s growing influence, especially through its proxies in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza, as a direct threat to its security and regional stability.
Nuclear Ambitions and Regional Security:
Iran’s nuclear program has been a major point of contention in its relations with Israel and the international community. Israel views a nuclear-armed Iran as an existential threat and has consistently opposed Iran’s nuclear ambitions, advocating for strong international sanctions and, if necessary, military action to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.
Proxy Conflicts and Regional Instability:
The Iran-Israel conflict plays out not only through direct confrontation but also through proxy battles across the Middle East. Iran provides support to groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, which have engaged in conflicts with Israel, while Israel has carried out airstrikes against Iranian targets in Syria and elsewhere, aiming to curb Iran’s influence.
International Involvement:
The Iran-Israel conflict is not limited to the two countries alone but involves various regional and international actors. Countries like the United States, Saudi Arabia, and other Gulf states align closely with Israel and oppose Iran’s regional ambitions, while Iran finds support from countries like Russia and to some extent, China.
Shia and Sunni:
The division between Shia and Sunni Muslims is one of the most significant and enduring schisms in Islamic history, dating back to the early days of Islam. While both groups share fundamental beliefs in one God (Allah) and the prophethood of Muhammad, their differences primarily stem from disagreements over leadership succession following the death of the Prophet Muhammad in 632 CE.
Geographical Distribution:
Sunnis constitute most of the Muslim population globally, comprising around 85-90% of Muslims worldwide. They predominate in countries like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, and Indonesia. Shias, while a minority within Islam, have significant populations in countries like Iran, Iraq, Bahrain, Lebanon, and Azerbaijan.
Relations and Tensions:
While Sunni and Shia Muslims coexist in many regions and often live peacefully alongside each other, tensions and conflicts have periodically erupted throughout history. Geopolitical rivalries, sectarianism, and political power struggles have fuelled discord, particularly in countries like Iraq, Syria, and Bahrain.
Modern Dynamics:
In recent years, sectarian tensions have been exacerbated by regional conflicts and proxy wars, notably in the rivalry between Sunni-majority Saudi Arabia and Shia-majority Iran. These tensions have often manifested in conflicts such as the civil wars in Syria and Yemen, where Sunni-Shia dynamics intersect with broader geopolitical interests.
Global oil supply:
The Middle East region has historically been a major contributor to global oil supply. Countries in the Middle East, particularly those within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), possess abundant reserves of crude oil, making them significant players in the global oil market.
At that time, the Middle East accounted for approximately 40-45% of the world’s total oil production. However, it’s essential to note that these figures can fluctuate due to various factors such as geopolitical developments, technological advancements, changes in oil demand, and the emergence of new oil-producing regions.
Saudi Arabia, the largest oil exporter in the world, is a key player in the Middle East’s oil production. Other major oil-producing countries in the region include Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar, among others.
Global gas supply:
The Middle East region plays a significant role in the global natural gas market, although its share of global gas supply is not as dominant as its share in the oil market. However, the Middle East possesses substantial natural gas reserves, and its contribution to global gas supply has been growing steadily over the years.
While the exact percentage of the Middle East’s contribution to global gas supply can vary depending on factors such as production levels, demand fluctuations, and the emergence of new gas-producing regions, the region typically accounts for a significant portion of the world’s total natural gas production.
Countries in the Middle East with notable natural gas reserves include Qatar, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Kuwait, among others. Qatar, in particular, is one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of natural gas, thanks to its massive offshore North Field, which holds some of the largest proven reserves of natural gas in the world.
The Middle East’s strategic importance in the global natural gas market is underscored by its substantial reserves, its growing production capacity, and its role as a key supplier to global markets, particularly in Asia, Europe, and other regions.
Please refer to my article on major global gas suppliers for more details.
Other escalations:
Also, Iran has an ally in the form of Russia while Israel has an ally in the form of USA. Any major escalation to a global level could lead to both these countries participating in the hostilities.
Please be aware that this article relies on my personal secondary research and could contain inaccuracies. Its purpose is not to offer particular perspectives on geopolitical events.
